Whether you’re a seasoned real estate professional or Just learning the ropes.........

NIREM can equip you with the skills to meet the challenges & opportunities of

Today’s ever-changing real estate market.

Home------About NIREM------NIREM Website

Saturday, January 28, 2012

India Infoline Venture Capital Fund Raises Rs 500Cr Realty Fund


BY ANIL DAS;
The fund will invest in equity, debt & equity-linked instruments of promising real estate and construction companies.

India Infoline Venture Capital Fund, the private equity arm of the India Infoline group (IIFL), has completed raising a Rs 500 crore fund dubbed IIFL Real Estate Fund (Domestic) Series I, according to a company statement.

The fund will mainly focus on the Indian real estate sector and invest in equity, debt and equity-linked instruments of promising real estate and construction companies, which are either involved in projects/ventures or have significant growth potential.

“We will target deployment (of the fund) during the current year itself, focusing on leading and promising projects of top developers in major cities, which are ongoing or to be launched,” said Balaji Raghavan, CEO and CIO of IIFL Alternate Asset Advisors Ltd.

Last week, Red Fort Capital, a private equity real estate fund, raised $500 million from overseas investors for its second real estate fund focused on residential properties.

The last major fund in the real estate sector came when IL&FS Investment Managers Ltd raised $895 million for IL&FS India Realty Fund II, exceeding the target of $750 million. IL&FS India Realty Fund II, which was closed in December 2008, was the largest sector-dedicated fund followed by HDFC’s $800 million HIREF International.

Post-Lehman crisis, PE investments in real estate sector have taken a hit with overseas investors staying on the sidelines. Most of the fundraising has focused on domestic investors, typically HNIs and ultra-HNIs. Residential realty space has dominated the deal volume during the recovery while commercial real estate deals picked up in value in 2011. Source: VCCircle

Friday, January 27, 2012

RBI Cuts CRR To Address Structural Deficit


BY DEEPALI BHARGAVA
RBI goes back on its word & cuts CRR by 50 bps to 5.5% with an intention of infusing INR 320b of primary liquidity.

The RBI cuts the Cash Reserve Ratio by 50 bps to 5.50% in order to infuse permanent liquidity in the system. While RBI’s priority gradually seems to be shifting towards growth, we do not think that today’s CRR cut will bring forward the Repo rate cut cycle as inflation risks continue to remain high.

RBI cuts CRR to infuse “permanent primary liquidity”
We have been strong proponents of a CRR cut and had been highlighting that “a cut is justified in the current scenario, considering a) a significant worsening of banking system liquidity, much above RBI’s comfort level b) inability of open market operations to infuse incremental permanent liquidity in the banking system in the face of additional government borrowings c) increasing constraints faced by corporates in raising external financing d) Possibility of a spike in currency in circulation ahead of elections.

The only reason we thought a CRR cut may not happen today was RBI’s insistence that CRR would be used as a monetary policy and not a liquidity management tool. With today’s policy, RBI goes back on its word and cuts CRR by 50 bps to 5.5% with an intention of infusing INR 320 bn of primary liquidity into the banking system. While this will help correct the banking system liquidity deficit, we don’t expect it to slip towards RBI’s comfort zone of -1% of Net Demand and Time Liabilities (NDTL) and expect it to hover over INR 1 tn by March-2012 without further CRR cuts by the RBI. Also, considering that credit growth demand remains weak (RBI has cut its credit growth projection from 18% YoY earlier to 16% YoY now) and may not result in immediate lending rate cuts by RBI, the CRR cut should not be inflationary.

RBI priority shifts to growth RBI highlights that “the growth-inflation balance of the monetary policy stance has now shifted to growth” with a significant slowdown in investment activity. It has downgraded its GDP projection for FY12 from 7.6% YoY to 7%, but doesn’t seem exceedingly worried about growth as it looks for a modest recovery, from these levels, in FY13. We think that given the inflation risks remain high – moderation in food inflation is only temporary, global energy prices have failed to correct, the large element of suppressed domestic fuel inflation will likely resurface as coal and diesel price hikes materialise – RBI rate cuts may not be aggressive enough to support growth and growth may continue to hover around 7% YoY in FY13.

Other key takeaways from the monetary policy review Non food credit growth has been trending lower. Non-food credit growth moderated from 21.3% at end-March to 15.7% by end-December 2011, a rate below the indicative projection of 18% set out previously.
  • Credit deceleration was particularly sharp for PSU Banks, with growth moderating from 21% to about 15% during the same period.
  • Disaggregated data for November showed that there was a general deceleration in the credit flow across sectors, except for personal loans. 
  • The deceleration was particularly sharp in agriculture, real estate, infrastructure, engineering, cement and cement products. 

This would likely mean that our FY12E credit growth expectations are likely to come down. The downgrades would be more skewed towards PSU banks which we believe have slowed down credit disbursements to focus more on asset quality and recovery. 

Impact of CRR cut on Indian Banks  
  • Positive impact on NIMs by 5bps: The 50bps CRR cut will release ~Rs 320bn of liquidity into the banking system. Banks can redeploy this liquidity into interest earning assets. This along with reduced cost of funds due to liquidity easing measure can aid margins by 5 bps.
  • Banks unlikely to cut interest rate: We believe this is not material enough for banks to consider passing on this marginal benefit to the borrowers. Few bankers have already indicated that they are not going to change their base rates post the monetary review.
We don’t think Repo rate cuts will be brought forward While RBI’s priority gradually seems to be shifting towards growth, we do not think that today’s CRR cut will bring forward the Repo rate cut cycle as inflation risks continue to remain high. We think the RBI will be keenly watching the outcome of the forthcoming Union Budget of 2012-13 and government’s attempts towards fiscal consolidation before calling for a victory over inflation. It notes that “in the absence of credible fiscal consolidation, the Reserve Bank will be constrained from lowering the policy rate in response to decelerating private consumption and investment spending”. We expect the first Repo rate cut in April 2012 and a total of 100-125 bps in FY13. 

The rate cut cycle this time is unlikely to be as aggressive as in 2008. Back then, the entire rate cut cycle was short in duration – merely six months – and heavy on quantum - with an initial 100 bps cut in Repo rate and cumulative cuts of 425 bps. That was in response to a sudden and highly uncertain global crisis. The backdrop this time is serious, but very different; a structurally challenged by better understood developed world scenario, but combined with a more difficult domestic scenario. In the absence of a systemic crisis caused by a tail event in Europe, we think a better parallel for assessing the impact might be the rate cut cycle of 2001-2004, which was far more gradual –extended over 3 years - and less aggressive – with cumulative cuts of 400 bps in the Repo rate. In that cycle, from an average of 7% in the one year before the rate cuts began, WPI inflation slipped to an average of 3.7% in the two years following the first rate cut, with manufacturing inflation slipping from 3% YoY to 2.2% in the corresponding periods.

The critical factors in rate actions ahead will be core inflation and exchange rate pass-through, where signs of moderation are yet to emerge. With this combination of persistent domestic structural inflationary factors, stubbornly high oil price, and twin deficit concerns meaning a weak Rupee; it’s unlikely that inflation will moderate in a hurry in FY13 as it did in the 2001-2004 rate cut cycle. We expect WPI inflation to average 7.2% in FY13. Another CRR cut before that cannot be ruled out if liquidity continues to deteriorate. Given our view that uncertainty on inflation may continue beyond March 2012 and government finances may not improve significantly it is hard to see the RBI doing a sudden volte face and aggressively easing. Though our view on USD/INR reversal to 50.00 has materialized, we think further downside below 49.00 may be capped till there’s clarity on the Union budget.

(Deepali Bhargava is chief economist, India for Espirito Santo Securities (formerly Execution Noble)); Source: VCCircle

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

IFC to bet on affordable green homes in India


IFC plans to support affordable housing in India — possibly housing in the Rs 5-7 lakh range —by working at ground level with authorities and private sector players. It is also working with National Housing Bank to set up a mortgage guarantee company, IMGC India.

International Finance Corporation (IFC), which has embarked on a major initiative in the housing finance sector in India for the first time, for the investment arm of WB, is looking at supporting mass housing and ‘truly affordable housing’. Dovetailed with this initiative will be efforts to keep the housing projects it supports in line with appropriate green building initiatives — environment-friendly, energy, water and other resources-efficient structures — that minimise the environmental impact of built-up space.
 
It plans to work with multiple agencies, including the authorities, and with private sector players — though conditions apply. IFC will involve at various levels, including regulatory, skill upgrading and financing, as a part of this plan, reports Business Line.

In a telephone interaction mediated by IFC officials in India, Prashant Kapoor, senior industry specialist, IFC, Washington., who has specialised in the affordable housing segment, outlined some of IFC’s plans to support the affordable housing projects targeting the lower-middle and less-affluent segments — possibly housing in the Rs 5-7 lakh range — where there is virtually no supply, with the market focussed on the upper-middle and affluent segments.

IFC is keen on supporting the private sector house builder, who is capable of delivering value housing, rather than the run-of-the-mill developer who speculates on the value of land, he cautions.

It will bring in the expertise it has built up internationally, particularly in economies in Latin America and South East Asia, where they have solved the problem of affordable housing, despite high GDP growth rates that are driving up costs.

They have approached this by being ‘industrial in processing’ in real estate development. Speed is the key as ‘cost increases with time’. They peg the gross and net margins in advance, keep the project cycles short, use prefabricated construction, and deliver the products in less than a year. The investment arm of WB is working with the National Housing Bank on a report for addressing affordable and environment-friendly housing.

IFC will also address the regulatory side by working with the authorities concerned on the mandatory minimum standards of efficiency. It has built up experience in Indonesia and other countries, and is keen on bringing similar initiatives in India and China.
 
As compared with the existing area of built-up space, the new supply will be much bigger. “India is yet to be built” and this is the right time to intervene, to ensure that the incoming supply is of the right kind, Kapoor says.

IFC, which has built up expertise in mass housing and green buildings, hopes to work at the ground level, apart from Central Government institutions such as the Bureau of Energy Efficiency.
While IFC will work with agencies such as the Bureau of Energy Efficiency, its focus will be more on working at the ground level with State-level agencies. It is keen for ‘traction at the ground level’. State governments such as Rajasthan, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu are moving in the right direction, and can benefit from support in developing knowledge in human resources among the authorities.

It is looking at a line of financing that lays emphasis on green housing. IFC is talking to some developers in major cities to explore opportunities for direct financing of projects.

During the last two years, it has a taken a ‘systematic approach’ to this, and has been monitoring developments in the markets here. It hopes to pursue this line, and is in talks with leading developers and banks, including refinance institutions and private banks and developers, according to Kapoor. IFC is looking at basic standards — along the lines of the rainwater harvesting initiative, solar water heaters for homes.

Typically, in Colombia for instance, where the average income is approximately $200, more than 20 per cent of the income goes to energy. If basic measures can help save energy costs, at least 50 per cent, it would significantly add value to the residents. There is a significant impact; it actually makes bank mortgages safer.

Financial instruments such as the ‘green mortgages’ are needed to support green buildings. Further, it is partnering with the National Housing Bank to set up a mortgage guarantee company, IMGC India.

According to information available on the IFC website, this will be a Public-Private Partnership between NHB, IFC, Asian Development Bank and an international mortgage insurance holding company, Genworth Financial International Holdings, a part of the US-based Genworth Financial, a financial services company.

IMGC will provide credit risk coverage to residential mortgage lenders, to protect them in case of borrower default. IFC will invest Rs 80 crore during the next five years, to take up to 19 per cent equity stake in the company, to be headquartered in NCR, Delhi.
 
Although IFC hasn’t invested in mortgage guarantee companies so far, IFC’s experience in the housing finance sector and in general financial institution building has helped in specific areas of project design, governance structures and financial evaluation. IFC may also support IMGC through a programme of counter-guarantees that would enable IMGC to expand its ability to support the mortgage guarantee sector in a financially effective manner.

It will have a development impact in enabling home ownership for middle-income households and first-time buyers, and will enhance the financial market for housing finance and standardise lending practices.Source:
www.realtyplusmag.com

Monday, January 23, 2012

Fitch: Negative Outlook for Indian Real Estate Sector in 2012


CHENNAI/SINGAPORE, January 16 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings says it has a Negative Outlook for the Indian real estate sector in 2012 due to weak overall demand and higher construction costs, which are likely to continue to squeeze margins.

High equated monthly instalments, resulting from significantly higher interest rates, lower household surplus due to high inflation and high residential unit prices, have reduced the affordability of homes. Both material and labour costs increased during 2011.

Residential segment sales, which had improved in Q111, moderated significantly and are likely to continue at the lower levels during H112. Oversupply of commercial space continues in some markets.

However, the demand for office space is likely to be maintained at 2011 levels as the hiring momentum of the IT/ITeS sector, the major driver of office space in India, continues in 2012. Demand for retail commercial space is expected to be low in 2012.

Gearing continued to increase for most companies in H211, though the overall gearing of large real estate companies decreased by about 20% from the post-crisis peak of around 0.89x. On the other hand, declining profits resulted in leverage (debt to EBITDA) at high levels in 2011 - at around 7x - and this is expected to continue in 2012, negatively impacting the creditworthiness of real estate companies.

The dependence on operational cash flows to fund growth and service debt is likely to increase. Fund raising options are limited due to the cautious approach of banks, weak equity markets and dwindling investment by private equity funds.

Improved macro-economic conditions leading to improved demand would have the potential to improve cash flows to real estate companies and see the outlook revised to stable. Also, the ability to judiciously use cash from liquidating existing inventories, which would improve capital structures, may result in the selective upgrades of companies in the real estate sector, even while the overall outlook is negative. Source: Reuters